ETHUSD long — 15 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,884.1 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,888.8 with a price move of +0.25%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-15 16:58 |
| Entry | 1,884.1 |
| Stop-loss | 1,859.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,902.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,915 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,888.8 |
| Realized P&L | +0.25% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (0/4 alignment — 5m/15m bull, 1h bear, 4h mixed), ADX_1h 13.4 slope -1.7 (sub-15 chop, fading), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), choppiness 59.9, ER-30 0.11 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 34 Fear — a low-conviction, mean-reverting chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG lean emerges — freshest short-TF momentum is up (5m/15m EMA bull-aligned, RSI 53-59), taker ratio 1.31 buy-skewed with last hourly bucket also 1.314, OI accelerating up (oi_5m_z +1.91, oi_momentum accelerating_up, agg_oi +0.38%) into rising price, top traders long-tilted (pos ratio 1.38, acct 2.00). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI building alongside buy-skewed takers and a fresh bull EMA stack on lower TFs — a nascent reclaim off the 5d/20d low (only +1.19% above 90d low, z_score -0.69 stretched cheap) with room to mean-revert up toward the 5d high (-1.61%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h remains bear-aligned and this asset's 30d record is weak (44.7% wr, -0.32% avg) with same-regime longs losing repeatedly — if buy pressure fades and 1h bear stack asserts, price rolls back down through the low. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1884.13; stop below the 5d/20d/90d low cluster (~1861 area, -1.19% below mark) at 1859.5 (~1.31% risk, within rv range); stretch TP at 1915.0 (+1.64%, ~1.25x risk) into the 5d-high zone, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with a thin up-lean; modest edge, meaningful expire probability given low vol pctl (24h RV 7.7 pctile).
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