ETHUSD long — 17 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,912.6 and stopped out at 1,893.8 after 3 hours, closing at -0.98%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-17 23:43 |
| Entry | 1,912.6 |
| Stop-loss | 1,893.8 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,926.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,936 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,893.8 |
| Realized P&L | -0.98% |
| Time open | 3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks bull-aligned across 5m/15m/1h/4h), ADX_1h 26.7 but slope -1.0 (genuine trend, marginally fading), Hurst 0.38 (mean-reverting bias), choppiness 59 (near range-bound), ER-30 0.22 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 31 Fear — a clean bull EMA stack overlaid on a low-efficiency, mean-reverting tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean — every EMA stack is bull-aligned, RSI 60-64 across TFs, top-trader pos ratio 1.34 (account 1.74) long-skewed, OI building (+2.1% 24h, oi_5m_z +0.91), fresh net +1.99% 24h. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — full_bullish MTF alignment plus long-skewed top-trader positioning and rising OI is the strongest confirming cluster; taker 1.03 and funding_z ~1.05 building confirm buyers in control. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at the 5d high (+0.000 to 5d_high) with z_score +1.31 and Hurst 0.38 mean-reverting — a rejection at this local high flips the short-term impulse down. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent structure at 1893.8 (~0.98% risk, ~0.34x rv but ~1.3x avg 12h move — appropriate for the low realized traversal); TP1 stretch at 1936.0 (~1.22% reward, R:R ~1.25), a reachable extension above the 5d high within 24h given avg_move_24h 0.73% and today's +1.99% impulse. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but at a local high in mean-reverting tape and this asset's 47.5% wr — modest edge with real expire risk given low intraday traversal.
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