ETHUSD long — 18 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,912.7 and hit its target at 1,927.6 after 17.9 hours, closing at +0.78%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-18 14:43 |
| Entry | 1,912.7 |
| Stop-loss | 1,893 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,927.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,937.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 1,927.6 |
| Realized P&L | +0.78% |
| Time open | 17.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks bull-aligned), but ADX_1h 16.2 slope +0.03 (marginal/flat trend), Hurst 0.37 (mean-reverting), choppiness 47, ER-30 0.15 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 41 Fear — a bull EMA stack laid over a low-efficiency, mean-reverting chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — full bull EMA alignment plus fresh momentum net +0.81% 4h/+1.07% 12h and OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.30, oi_15m_z +1.32) with top traders long-tilted (pos ratio 1.41, acct 2.07). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — the strongest cluster is structure/flow: full_bullish MTF stack + accelerating OI + top-trader long tilt align on the up side, and price sits +2.5% off 5d/20d lows. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker_buy_sell 0.886 is sell-skewed and funding z is negative (-0.40/-0.54 agg), OI fell 1.8% on 24h and z-score is stretched +1.49 — a rejection at the 5d high (price -0.02% from it) flips this fast. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1912.65; invalidation below the recent consolidation shelf, stop 1893.0 (~1.03% ≈ ATR-aligned given rv 27/atr_1h 0.48); stretch TP 1937.5 (~1.30%, R:R ~1.26, inside clamps) toward a push through the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: honest distribution given chop + sell-skewed takers capping upside and a decent expire chance.
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