AAVEUSD long — 18 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 89.4194 and stopped out at 87.85 after 7.9 hours, closing at -1.76%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-18 14:43 |
| Entry | 89.4194 |
| Stop-loss | 87.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 90.6978 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 91.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.36 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 87.85 |
| Realized P&L | -1.76% |
| Time open | 7.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bull, 1h mixed, 4h bear), 1h ADX 24.6 rising (slope +1.4), choppiness 47.7, ER-10 0.55 / ER-30 0.40 (moderately clean near-term), Hurst 0.37 (mean-revert), HMM calm — a chop-to-transitional tape with a fresh near-term upward push. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly long — near-term momentum is up (net +0.40% 4h, +1.80% 12h, +1.65% 24h), price sits right at 5d high (-0.018%), OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +0.21, oi_change_recent_half +2.4%), top-traders lean long (pos ratio 1.30). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI accelerating up as price pushes to a 5d high with top-trader long tilt and positive funding momentum is a coherent, if modest, breakout-continuation cluster; the near-term EMA stack (5m/15m bull) aligns. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h EMA is still bear-aligned and taker_buy_sell_1h is 0.85 (sellers active this hour) — a rejection at the 5d high that fails to break rolls this back into the range. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 89.42; stop_loss 87.85 below the recent consolidation / near 1h swing (~1.75% risk, roughly matching rv_24h/atr), take_profit_1 91.55 at a modest breakout extension (~2.4% reward, R:R ~1.35, inside clamps and reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal ~1.4-2.9%). 6. EXPECTATION: thin single-cluster lean into overhead resistance — p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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