ETHUSD long — 19 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,282.4 and stopped out at 2,225 after 5.5 hours, closing at -2.51%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-19 21:42 |
| Entry | 2,282.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,225 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,325.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,354 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,225 |
| Realized P&L | -2.51% |
| Time open | 5.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 58.5 slope +7.2 (extremely strong, still strengthening), choppiness 14.1 + ER-10 0.97 (near-perfect one-way tape), HMM calm high-conf — but Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting), rolling z +8.1, RV_24h at 100th pctile, RSI 76-96 across all TFs, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs after +19.4% 24h: a violent, extremely extended bull impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — trend, momentum, OI accelerating up, taker 1.42, top-trader pos 1.47 rising, funding building but not extreme; every cluster points up, no clean short trigger without a reclaim, so I take the trend-aligned long at reduced size due to extension. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: 4/4 MTF bull alignment + ADX 58 rising + oi_momentum accelerating_up (agg OI +17.5%) + taker/top-trader buying — a genuine trend-strengthening breakout, and prior same-regime ETH longs at conf 56-63 have won repeatedly (+1.42% to +2.64%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RV at 100th pctile + RSI 94-96 + rolling z +8 means a sharp mean-reversion snap could hit stop before continuation; a break back below the recent 1h consolidation shelf invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2282.39; stop 2225.0 below the recent impulse shelf (~2.5% ≈ atr_pct_4h 1.9 / rv-scaled, structural), risk ~57.4; TP 2354.0 stretch (+3.1%, R:R ~1.25) at next round extension reachable given avg 24h traversal is dwarfed by current momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but extreme extension raises snapback odds — p_tp1 48, p_sl 34, p_expire 18.
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