ETHUSD long — 19 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,085.8 and hit its target at 2,109.9 after 4.5 hours, closing at +1.16%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-19 15:42 |
| Entry | 2,085.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,052 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,109.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,126 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,109.9 |
| Realized P&L | +1.16% |
| Time open | 4.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 43.4 slope +9.6 (strong trend strengthening hard), choppiness 14.1 and ER-10 0.91 (extremely clean one-way tape), HMM calm — but Hurst 0.13 (strongly mean-reverting), rolling z +9.8, RV 24h at 100th pctile, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs: a violent, extremely extended bull impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — trend, momentum, OI all point up; the extension argues for caution not a fade with no reclaim setup. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — 4/4 bull EMA stacks, OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +4.9, agg_oi +9.3%), taker 1h 1.38, top-trader pos ratio 1.34 all long, +8.8% net 24h; fresh buyers driving OI, not a short-covering hollow. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 87-95 across every TF and z +9.8 mean a sharp mean-reversion snap could hit stop before continuation resumes. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2085.81; stop below the recent breakout shelf at 2052.0 (~1.6% back, roughly 1x the ~2% typical extension pullback and inside RV); stretch TP 2126.0 (~1.9% up, R:R ~1.2), an honest continuation extension reachable given the impulse but inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but extreme extension caps p_tp1; meaningful snap-back risk and expire fraction.
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