ETHUSD long — 20 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,303.6 and hit its target at 2,337.4 after 1 hours, closing at +1.47%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-20 15:41 |
| Entry | 2,303.6 |
| Stop-loss | 2,258 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,337.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,360 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,337.4 |
| Realized P&L | +1.47% |
| Time open | 1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 68.1 but slope -2.4 (extremely strong trend now fading at its peak), choppiness 50.7, ER-30 0.68 clean but ER-10 0.46 stalling, Hurst 0.67 trending, HMM calm high-conf — a violent +10.5% 24h bull impulse now decelerating at extreme extension. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean holds — trend, OI (+5% 24h, agg +6.6%) and top-trader positioning (pos ratio 1.60) all point up; but extension is severe. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — full bull MTF stack + strong ADX + rising OI on a genuine directional impulse (ER-30 0.68); prior same-regime longs on this asset won repeatedly. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme overextension warns — RSI 77 (1h)/93 (4h), rolling z +3.34, RV 90.8th pctile, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs, ADX slope negative and OI decelerating; a pullback/mean-revert would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2303.62; stop below the last 1h consolidation floor at 2258.0 (~1.98% risk, ~0.8x the 2.53% 24h traversal, honest invalidation of the impulse); stretch TP at 2360.0 (~2.45% reward, R:R ~1.24, a reachable continuation high within 24h given atr). 6. EXPECTATION: extension caps upside conviction — p_tp1 41, p_sl 34, p_expire 25.
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