ETHUSD long — 20 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,342.8 and hit its target at 2,377.1 after 8.9 hours, closing at +1.46%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-20 16:56 |
| Entry | 2,342.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,298 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,377.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,400 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,377.1 |
| Realized P&L | +1.46% |
| Time open | 8.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 68.3 but slope -1.19 (extremely strong trend now fading at peak), choppiness 42.8, ER-30 0.70 clean / ER-10 0.55 stalling, Hurst 0.67 trending, HMM calm high-conf — a violent +12.1% 24h bull impulse decelerating at extreme extension. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean holds — trend fully aligned, OI accelerating_up (+8.1% 24h, oi_z +2.4/+2.7), top-trader pos ratio 1.65 and rising, taker 1h 1.07; no coherent short case beyond overextension. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend+flow confluence — full bull EMA stack with accelerating OI and top-traders positioned net-long into the move, this exact setup has repeatedly won on ETH per the track record. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme extension is the risk — RSI 81(1h)/94(4h), rolling z +3.55, RV_24h 90th pctile, funding z +2.0 crowded-long; a mean-reversion snap back through recent structure invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry at mark 2342.82; stop below the last intraday consolidation shelf at 2298 (~1.9% ≈ well within the 5.2% 7d range given elevated RV), stretch TP at 2400 (~2.45%, R:R ~1.28) — an honest structural push toward the round 2400 the momentum points to, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but extreme extension caps upside continuation; p_tp1 47, p_sl 34, p_expire 19.
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