ETHUSD long — 20 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,261.8 and hit its target at 2,294.9 after 2.2 hours, closing at +1.46%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-20 06:57 |
| Entry | 2,261.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,214.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,294.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,317 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,294.9 |
| Realized P&L | +1.46% |
| Time open | 2.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 69.3 slope +0.35 (extremely strong trend but slope now nearly flat = plateauing), choppiness 26.3 + ER-30 0.71 (clean directional over 30 bars) but ER-10 0.28 (recent 10 bars stalling), Hurst 0.63 (trending), HMM volatile high-conf — a violent bull impulse that just delivered +18% 24h and is now decelerating. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean — the higher-timeframe trend, OI (+16.7% 24h), and top-trader positioning (pos ratio 1.41) all point up; but note the exhaustion overlay (RSI 82/93, rolling z +4.09, RV 97th pctile, ADX slope flat, taker 1h 0.878 sub-1, OI momentum decelerating). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — 4/4 EMA stack + ADX ~69 + rising OI + top-trader long tilt define an entrenched bull; the recent same-regime track record is a run of TP1 wins on bull_trend continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: recent taker ratio dipping below 1 (0.878) + decelerating OI + ER-10 collapse to 0.28 flags a stall at the 5d high (-1.08%); a rejection here unwinds the extended move fast. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2261.83; stop below the recent consolidation shelf at 2214.5 (~2.1% ≈ near avg 24h traversal, honest invalidation given the extension); stretch TP 2317.0 (~2.4%, R:R ~1.17, inside the 4%/1.5x clamps) at a push toward fresh highs. 6. EXPECTATION: extended plateau on strong trend — modest edge, meaningful expire probability given the flat momentum.
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