ETHUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,359.8 and hit its target at 2,394.1 after 5.3 hours, closing at +1.45%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 01:56 |
| Entry | 2,359.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,313 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,394.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,417 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,394.1 |
| Realized P&L | +1.45% |
| Time open | 5.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 61.7 but slope -1.1 (extremely strong trend now fading at peak), choppiness 45.2, ER-30 0.51 / ER-10 0.32 (recent bars stalling), Hurst 0.66 trending, HMM calm high-conf — a strong +4.2% 24h bull impulse decelerating at extreme extension. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean holds — trend fully aligned, OI accelerating_up (+5.6% agg, +3.4% 24h, oi_5m_z +2.1), taker 1h 1.21, top-trader pos ratio 1.60 all point up; but RSI overbought across all TFs (4h RSI 94, 1h 75), rolling z +2.94, RV at 84th/100th pctile, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs — extended. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow cluster — full_bullish stack, ADX 61, accelerating OI with taker buy skew and top-trader position ratio 1.6, macro tailwind (DXY -1.2% 5d, gold ripping, BTC dom rising with risk-on). This is a genuine trend continuation, not a chop fade. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme extension (4h RSI 94, rolling z +2.94, at 90d high) means any exhaustion/reversal candle unwinds fast; a break below the recent consolidation ~2320 kills the thesis. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2359.80; stop below structural support / recent swing at 2313 (~1.98% risk, within ~1x the 2.83% avg 24h traversal); stretch TP at 2417 (~2.44% / RR ~1.23) — a reach above the current high consistent with continued impulse, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but extended and slope fading, so meaningful expire/pullback risk.
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