ETHUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,373.1 and hit its target at 2,404.9 after 2.2 hours, closing at +1.34%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 11:41 |
| Entry | 2,373.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,331.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,404.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,426 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,404.9 |
| Realized P&L | +1.34% |
| Time open | 2.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMA bull-aligned with ADX_1h a towering 63.2 slope +0.41 (very strong, still building), Hurst 0.645 trending, HMM calm high-conf — but 4h RSI 94.2 overbought, rolling z +2.43, RV_24h 92.75% (85th pctile), price pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs (-3.0%) after +2.7% 24h: strong bull trend, extremely extended. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — trend fully aligned on higher TFs, OI accelerating_up (agg +6.2%, oi_5m_z +1.03, oi_15m_z +1.23), top-trader pos ratio 1.73 long-heavy with 4h chg +0.17; but 1h taker 0.919 (sell-leaning), ER-10 collapsed to 0.064 (recent bars nets nowhere), funding_z ~2.0 crowded-long. 3. THESIS: dominant cluster is HTF trend + accelerating OI on the long side — a resilient bull structure buying dips; take the trend-aligned long. 4. PRE-MORTEM: at 94 RSI on 4h with funding_z +2 and ER-10 0.064, a crowded-long unwind could snap back; a break below the recent 12h consolidation floor invalidates. 5. LEVELS: entry 2373.14; stop 2331.5 (~1.75% below, beyond the intraday consolidation floor, within ~0.5x the 3.07% avg 24h traversal for a trending asset); TP1 stretch 2426.0 (~2.23%, RR ~1.27x, inside 1.5x/4% clamps) at the next round structural push above the recent high. 6. EXPECTATION: extended but trending — modest edge, meaningful fade risk.
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