AAVEUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 112.61 and stopped out at 109.7 after 35 minutes, closing at -2.58%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 11:11 |
| Entry | 112.61 |
| Stop-loss | 109.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 114.704 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 116.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 109.7 |
| Realized P&L | -2.58% |
| Time open | 35 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 with 5m/15m/1h bull EMA-stacked (4h mixed), 1h ADX 58.1 rising (slope +5.67), choppiness 25.9 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.82 very clean, Hurst 0.47 neutral, HMM calm — a powerful accelerating bull impulse (+15.3% 24h) but deeply stretched. 2. LEAN CHECK: long — trend, OI acceleration (accelerating_up, oi_15m_z +2.93, agg_oi +27%) and top-trader positioning (pos ratio 1.35, acct 1.73) all point up; this is the exact setup that has repeatedly won on this asset. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is OI-accelerating-into-trend — fresh money (agg_oi +27%, oi_change_recent_half +19%) chasing a clean, trend-aligned breakout with top traders net long; the recent-signal history shows the momentum-continuation long winning +2.1/+2.4/+1.7% repeatedly. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the trade is invalidated by exhaustion — RSI 87/90 on 1h/4h, z-score +4.57, RV at 99.5th pctile, taker ratio just slipped under 1.0 (0.96); a momentum stall reverses this fast. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 112.61; stop below the last intraday shelf at 109.85 (~2.45% risk, inside the elevated ATR band ~1.7% 1h / rv very high, justified stop width given vol); stretch TP at 116.10 (~3.1% up), ~1.27x risk, reachable given 24h traversal has been >14% and avg 24h move 2.6% but current impulse far exceeds that. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but exhaustion risk is real at these extremes — p_tp1 46, p_sl 34, p_expire 20.
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