ETHUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,390.3 and hit its target at 2,429.1 after 4.4 hours, closing at +1.62%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 13:56 |
| Entry | 2,390.3 |
| Stop-loss | 2,338 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,429.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,455 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,429.1 |
| Realized P&L | +1.62% |
| Time open | 4.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h a towering 61.0 but slope -3.5 (extremely strong trend now fading from peak), choppiness 51.7 (rising toward chop), ER-10 0.24 / ER-30 0.31 (path getting noisy), Hurst 0.64 trending, HMM calm high-conf — a powerful +4.9% 24h bull impulse now stalling at extreme extension. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean holds — trend fully aligned, OI still building (agg +8.3%, oi_5m_z +2.14), top-trader pos ratio 1.75 heavily long, taker 1.15 buy-tilted; but 4h RSI 94.3 overbought, rolling z +2.43, RV_24h 92nd pctile, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs (-2.3%), net_move_4h already turned -0.65%. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + flow — full bull EMA stack with ADX 61 and OI accelerating with top-traders 1.75 long; this asset just won two TP1s in this same regime today. 4. PRE-MORTEM: ADX slope negative + 4h RSI 94 + net_move_4h -0.65% signals momentum exhaustion — a rejection off the 5d high would flip this to a fade; also two SL hits earlier today at similar conf show extension risk. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2390.32; stop below the recent intraday shelf at 2338 (~2.2%, within the ~3.1% 24h traversal and ~90% RV); stretch target 2455 (~2.7%, ~1.24x stop distance, inside clamps) toward a clean push above the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: extended but trend-aligned; modest edge with meaningful expire risk given decelerating momentum.
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