ETHUSD long — 29 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,447.9 and hit its target at 2,475.5 after 21.2 hours, closing at +1.13%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-29 16:39 |
| Entry | 2,447.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,412.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,475.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,494 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.30 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,475.5 |
| Realized P&L | +1.13% |
| Time open | 21.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m & 4h bull EMA, 15m/1h mixed), 1h ADX 30 but slope -5.6 (fading), ER-10 0.48/ER-30 0.29, choppiness 50.9, Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a choppy tape inside a nominally-intact 4h bull structure, RV in the bottom ~0.5 pctile (very quiet). 2. LEAN CHECK: mild long lean — 4h EMA bull, top-trader position ratio 1.67 (crowded long), OI z +1.3 and building, near-term net_move +0.61% (4h) positive; contradicting is fading 1h ADX and choppy path, but no coherent short case. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: positioning + flow cluster favors long — top_trader_pos_ratio 1.67 with OI 5m z +1.3, ETH ETF +$102M net inflow while BTC saw outflow (relative strength), sitting -3.4% under 5d/20d highs with room; trend-aligned to the 4h bull EMA. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 70 overbought + fading 1h ADX + Hurst mean-reverting means the near-term push can fail and roll back below the 5d-low pivot. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2447.87; stop below the recent swing/5d-low structure at 2412.5 (~1.45%, within ~0.6x rv given quiet vol); stretch TP at 2494.0 (~1.9%, R:R ~1.3, inside clamps) toward the 5d-high magnet. 6. EXPECTATION: quiet chop with mild long edge — modest p_tp1, meaningful p_expire given low RV.
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