ETHUSD long — 30 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,520.4 and stopped out at 2,478 after 4.4 hours, closing at -1.68%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-30 16:38 |
| Entry | 2,520.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,478 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,550.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,570 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,478 |
| Realized P&L | -1.68% |
| Time open | 4.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 4/4 alignment with bull EMA stacks on 5m/15m/4h (1h mixed), 1h ADX 29.5 slope +7.3 (strengthening), ER-10 0.77 / choppiness 29 (trending), Hurst 0.28 (mean-reverting caveat), HMM calm — a genuine, freshly-strengthening near-term uptrend inside intact 4h bull structure, price sitting right at 5d/20d/90d highs (-0.52%). 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — momentum up (net +2.13% 4h, +2.89% 24h), OI accelerating up (oi_5m_z +3.68, agg_oi +4.8%), top-traders positioned long (pos ratio 1.65), taker 1.12. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: three confirming clusters — HTF trend (4h bull, ADX rising), flow/OI (accelerating_up OI z-score +3.7 with taker >1), and positioning (top-trader pos 1.65 rising 4h) — all trend-aligned pushing a breakout attempt at range highs, plus ETH ETF net inflow ($102M) supporting the bid. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is extremely stretched (82-84 on 5m/15m/1h) with Hurst 0.28 and z-score +1.76 — a rejection at the 90d high that stalls momentum flips this to a fade; failure to clear -0.52% overhead invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent breakout shelf at 2478 (~1.7% down, within ~1x rv_24h/atr); stretch target 2570 (~1.97% up) at the round measured-move extension above the 90d high, R:R ~1.16. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought stretch tempers upside odds, so meaningful expire probability.
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