ETHUSD long — 4 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,443.9 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,455.6 with a price move of +0.48%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-04 12:33 |
| Entry | 2,443.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,381.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,487.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,516 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,455.6 |
| Realized P&L | +0.48% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (15m/1h/4h bull EMA, 5m mixed), 1h ADX 43.4 but slope -0.61 (strong trend fading), ADX-20 33.2, ER-10 0.47/ER-30 0.11 (recent path netting little), choppiness 39 (edge of trending), Hurst 0.45 (mildly mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — HTF-bull structure suffering a sharp downside flush. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided — HTF EMA stack is bull and top-traders lean long (pos ratio 1.73), but momentum is sharply down (net -3.08% 4h, -2.06% 12h) into deep oversold RSI (5m 17, 15m 23), OI z 5m -2.62 (position flush) and agg OI -1.15%. The oversold-into-support bounce is the cleaner tactical edge given HTF bull backdrop. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: long — oversold reclaim near the 5d low (+3.25% off it), deeply washed-out 5m/15m RSI inside an intact 15m/1h/4h bull EMA stack, top-trader position ratio 1.73 (heavily long), positive daily change; the sharp 4h flush looks like a shakeout rather than trend break. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a break below the 5d low (~2,367) with OI rebuilding on the short side invalidates the bounce and confirms trend reversal. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2,443.86; stop 2,381.5 below the 5d-low swing (dist ~2.55%, ~0.6x rv_24h — reasonable in a hot-vol tape); TP 2,516.0 stretch at the recent congestion/5d-high area (dist ~2.95%, R:R ~1.16, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce in bull structure but fading trend and downside momentum keep this uncertain.
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