SOLUSD short — 4 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 101.3682 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 102.531 with a price move of -1.15%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-04 12:33 |
| Entry | 101.3682 |
| Stop-loss | 103.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 99.8573 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 98.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 102.531 |
| Realized P&L | -1.15% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 1/4 (5m bear, 15m/1h mixed, 4h still bull EMA), alignment_score 0/4 with regime transitional, 1h ADX 29.5 slope -0.54 (decent but fading), ER10 0.54 / ER30 0.02 (recent leg clean but nets nowhere over 30 bars), choppiness 39.3, Hurst 0.58, HMM calm 0.9999 — a transitional tape with a fresh downside push cooling. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — net -3.0% 4h / -2.2% 12h with OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.58, agg OI -4.7%), taker ratio 0.84 (sellers), RSI oversold across LTFs; but top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.21) and 4h EMA still bull cut against it. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_down OI shedding into a -3% 4h drop with taker sell pressure (0.84) is real distribution, momentum-aligned to the LTF bear stack. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 19.9 on 5m / 25 on 15m is deeply oversold near the 5d_low (+3.6% above it) — a mean-reversion bounce off support would invalidate a fresh short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 101.37; stop above the recent swing / 1h structure at 103.55 (2.15% ~ 0.7x rv-scaled), target the 5d_low zone at 98.85 (2.48% below, R:R ~1.15, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold-near-support caps it, so meaningful bounce risk and expiry probability.
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