ETHUSD long — 6 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,512 and stopped out at 2,477.4 after 10.4 hours, closing at -1.38%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-06 21:16 |
| Entry | 2,512 |
| Stop-loss | 2,477.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,540.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,559.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.38 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,477.4 |
| Realized P&L | -1.38% |
| Time open | 10.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h/15m EMA bull_aligned (5m mixed), alignment 4/4 but mtf "mixed", 1h ADX 22.9 slope -2.7 (fading), ADX-20 19.0, ER-10 0.17/ER-30 0.29, choppiness 43.9, Hurst 0.47 (mild mean-reversion), HMM calm 0.999 — a HTF-bull structure that has stalled and is losing momentum near local highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean survives — HTF EMA stack bull, net moves all positive (+0.85% 4h, +0.54% 12h, +0.94% 24h), taker ratio 1.51 and top-trader position ratio 1.76 both long-tilted. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend alignment (1h/4h bull EMA) reinforced by flow — fresh 1h taker buy pressure (1.51) plus top-trader long positioning (1.76), price only -0.60% under 5d/20d high. 4. PRE-MORTEM: overbought exhaustion — 5m RSI 81, 15m RSI 74.6, z_score +1.59, ADX slope negative, OI momentum accelerating_down (oi_change_recent_half -0.62%) — a rejection at the 5d high would flip this to a fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent consolidation shelf at 2,477.4 (~1.37% risk, within rv/ATR range); stretch target at 2,559.8 (~1.9% up, ~1.4x stop distance, inside clamps) toward a break of the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: fading momentum caps the stretch odds; p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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