BTCUSD long — 6 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 80,436.3 and stopped out at 79,180 after 7.8 hours, closing at -1.56%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-06 23:46 |
| Entry | 80,436.3 |
| Stop-loss | 79,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 81,404.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 82,050 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 79,180 |
| Realized P&L | -1.56% |
| Time open | 7.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish EMA stack across 5m/15m/1h/4h, but 1h ADX only 15.1 slope -0.72 (fading), ER_30 0.11 (net-nowhere over 30 bars), choppiness 39.6, Hurst 0.51, HMM calm — a bull-aligned structure with weak/decelerating trend energy, transitional. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans LONG modestly — full EMA alignment, +0.84% 24h, taker 1.05, fresh +0.77%/4h impulse, price near 5d high; no clean short catalyst. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF trend alignment (4/4 bull EMA) is the single strongest cluster, reinforced by top-trader position ratio 2.01 (heavily long) and funding z -1.46 (funding cheap, room to run without crowded-long risk). 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling z +1.40 + 15m RSI 71.8 overbought + OI accelerating_down (oi_momentum accelerating_down, oi_change_recent_half -0.54%) means the impulse is not backed by fresh OI — a stall/mean-revert back below the 4h EMA would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 80,436; stop below recent structure at 79,180 (~1.56%, roughly 0.9x rv_24h daily range, beyond the near-term swing); stretch TP at 82,050 (~2.0%, ~1.28x stop distance, toward the 5d/20d high resistance ~2% overhead), inside 1.5x and 4% clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: bull alignment favors upside but overbought + fading ADX + OI not confirming caps conviction — p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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