ETHUSD long — 7 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,487.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,478.8 with a price move of -0.34%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-07 07:55 |
| Entry | 2,487.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,451 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,512.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,530 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,478.8 |
| Realized P&L | -0.34% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment "mixed" (0/4; 5m+15m bear EMA, 1h+4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 22.2 slope -0.11 (fading), ADX-20 19.5, ER-10 0.31/ER-30 0.10, choppiness 51.0, Hurst 0.47 (mild mean-reversion), HMM calm 0.999 — a HTF-bull structure that has lost short-frame momentum and is chopping mid-range. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest long lean survives — HTF (1h/4h) EMA bull, top-traders positioned long (pos ratio 1.70, account 1.20), funding mildly positive; offsetting are soft near-term flow (1h taker 0.85, oi down 24h) — a thin long lean, not a strong one. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend alignment + top-trader positioning long (pos ratio 1.70 well above 1, account ratio 1.20) with OI momentum accelerating_up recently and price only -1.6% off 20d/90d highs — trend-aligned dip-buy. 4. PRE-MORTEM: sustained soft taker flow (1h 0.85) plus continued OI bleed (oi_change_24h -0.22%, agg OI -0.75%) would confirm distribution and a break below the 5d-low support. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 2451.0 below recent swing/structure (~1.45% risk, ~0.55x rv_24h — reasonable given calm regime); take_profit_1 2530.0 stretch toward the 5d/20d high zone (~1.72% reward, R:R ~1.19, inside clamps, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.79%). 6. EXPECTATION: HTF bull + track record 66% wr support long, but chop/soft flow tempers — p_tp1 47, p_sl 36, p_expire 17.
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