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ETHUSD long — 13 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,501.3 and stopped out at 2,468 after 8.3 hours, closing at -1.33%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-13 16:11 |
| Entry | 2,501.3 |
| Stop-loss | 2,468 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,524.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,540 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,468 |
| Realized P&L | -1.33% |
| Time open | 8.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 0/4 (5m mixed, 15m bear, 1h mixed, 4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 27.9 slope +0.36 (firm but flat), ADX-20 19.5, ER-10 0.11/ER-30 0.20 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 43.6, Hurst 0.28 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-efficiency chop tape drifting down (-1.16% 24h, -0.72% 12h). 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest long lean survives — funding is deeply negative (funding_z -2.65, extreme short-crowding) and ETH ETF inflows are surging (+14x velocity, +$216M), a fade-the-shorts setup near the 5d low (+3.6% off it). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning/funding — funding_z -2.65 with negative binance/delta funding means shorts are paying to hold and crowded; combined with net_move +1.0% over last 4h (fresh up-tilt) and heavy ETH ETF inflows, plus top-trader position ratio 1.20 long-tilted, this favors a mean-revert bounce off oversold funding. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m bear-aligned with rising 15m ADX 39.9 and BTC-correlated risk-off (total mcap -3.7%) — if 2,480 gives way the down-leg resumes and the long is wrong. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent swing/5d-low structure at 2,468 (~1.3% risk, within rv_24h/atr band); take_profit_1 stretch at 2,540, a reachable level toward the 1h mid-range, R:R ~1.05 and inside 4% clamp. 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with a thin edge — p_tp1 42, p_sl 39, p_expire 19.
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