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ETHUSD long — 18 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,637 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,636.9 with a price move of -0.00%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-18 19:27 |
| Entry | 2,637 |
| Stop-loss | 2,578.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,676.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,703.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,636.9 |
| Realized P&L | -0.00% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish 4/4 MTF, 1h ADX 52.5 slope +6.3 (strong firming trend), ER-10 0.85 / ER-30 0.66 (clean directional path), choppiness 31 (strongly trending), HMM calm 0.999 — a powerful bull_trend on a fresh +7.5% 24h / +1.9% 4h impulse, but heavily overbought (1h RSI 89.5, 15m 81, z-20d +3.05, price at 5d/20d/90d high). 2. LEAN CHECK: long — every trend/flow cluster points up; the only caveat is extreme overbought stretch, not a reversal signal. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +2.32, agg_oi +10.1%, oi_change_24h +8.8%), top-trader pos ratio 1.58 long-tilted, taker 1.09 buy-side, funding only mildly hot (z +1.21) so not blow-off crowded; fresh new highs with expanding OI is trend-continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 89.5 at new highs with z +3.05 means a sharp mean-revert pullback could hit stop before continuation; a break back below the recent breakout shelf ~2585 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2636.97; stop below breakout structure at 2578.5 (~2.2% risk, ~0.9-1.0x rv_24h intraday range, beyond the shelf); take_profit_1 stretch at 2703.5 (~2.5% up, R:R ~1.14, inside 4% clamp, reachable given 4h atr 1.69% and net +1.9% 4h momentum). 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend favors continuation but overbought raises pullback odds.
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