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ETHUSD long — 19 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,636.7 and stopped out at 2,588 after 7.3 hours, closing at -1.85%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-19 19:27 |
| Entry | 2,636.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,588 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,673.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,698 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,588 |
| Realized P&L | -1.85% |
| Time open | 7.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h/15m EMA bull-aligned, 5m mixed (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed); 1h ADX 55.1 but slope -1.46 (strong yet fading), ER-10 0.09 (path nets nowhere short-term) vs ER-30 0.38, choppiness 57.3 (range-bound edge), Hurst 0.50 (random walk), HMM calm 0.999 — a mature uptrend stalling into consolidation right at the 5d/20d/90d high (dist -0.46%) with rolling z +2.03 (stretched). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long — bull EMA stack across 15m/1h/4h and price pinned at range highs, but momentum has stalled (4h RSI 71.9 overbought, ER-10 0.09, net_4h -0.12%) so this is a thin trend-aligned lean not a fresh impulse. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: higher-TF trend cluster is the anchor — bull-aligned 15m/1h/4h with ADX 55, top-trader pos ratio 1.57 (longs holding), agg OI +1.09% and BTC correlation +0.72 with $433M BTC / $143M ETH ETF inflows on 09-18 supporting the risk-on backdrop; sitting just under the 90d high means a break resolves up. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z +2.03 and 4h RSI 71.9 overbought with ER-10 0.09 — a rejection at the high flips this into a mean-revert pullback and stops the long. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2636.68; stop below the recent consolidation floor / invalidation at 2588.0 (dist ~1.85%, within the 4.5% ADR / rv27); stretch TP 2698.0 (~2.33%, ~1.26x stop distance, inside 1.5x clamp) targeting a clean break above the 90d high. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought+stalled tempers upside so meaningful expire probability.
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