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ETHUSD long — 21 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,786.2 and stopped out at 2,732 after 6.5 hours, closing at -1.95%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-21 20:38 |
| Entry | 2,786.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,732 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,826.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,853 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,732 |
| Realized P&L | -1.95% |
| Time open | 6.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish MTF (4/4 EMA stacks bull-aligned), 1h ADX 55.1 slope +3.27 (very strong and firming), ER-10 0.70/ER-30 0.55 (clean path), choppiness 37.8 (trending edge), Hurst 0.62 (persistent), HMM calm 0.999 — a firm, strengthening uptrend printing at the 5d/20d/90d high on a +5.8% 24h impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence leans long — trend, OI flow (+6.1% 24h, oi z +0.80), top-trader positioning (pos ratio 1.47) and cross-asset (BTC +0.73) all align up; no coherent short case. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the trend cluster is overwhelming — 4/4 alignment with ADX 55 firming at fresh highs, backed by rising OI and top-trader long tilt; this is the same setup that won repeatedly on this asset. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/4h RSI 78/80 (overbought), rolling z +2.66 (stretched), RV pctile 84.7, OI momentum decelerating, taker 1h 0.98 (mild selling) — an exhaustion reversal off the high would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2786.25; stop below the recent breakout/consolidation shelf at 2732 (~1.95% distance, ~1.2x atr_pct_4h 1.58, within range); stretch target at 2853 (~2.4% up, RR ~1.24, inside 4% clamp) into round-number resistance the trend points at. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but stretched/overbought caps upside conviction and raises reversal odds.
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