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BTCUSD long — 21 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 86,916.6 and stopped out at 85,340 after 6.7 hours, closing at -1.81%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-21 20:38 |
| Entry | 86,916.6 |
| Stop-loss | 85,340 |
| Take-profit 1 | 88,022.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 88,760 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 85,340 |
| Realized P&L | -1.81% |
| Time open | 6.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bullish 4/4, 1h ADX 56.7 slope +5.6 (very strong trend still strengthening), choppiness 27.0 (<38 strongly trending), ER_10 0.96 (extremely clean one-way), Hurst 0.62 (persistent), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a powerful accelerating bull impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly LONG — trend, flow, and positioning all point up; +7.2% in 24h at 5d/20d/90d highs. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend+flow confluence — OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.12, agg_oi +9.2%), taker 1.44, top-trader pos ratio 2.13 heavily long, all trend-aligned into fresh highs; funding still modest (z -0.48, agg z -0.54), so the rally isn't yet over-crowded on funding. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/4h RSI ~87-88 overbought and z_score +3.12 / RV pctile 84-90% — a sharp mean-reversion flush after such an extended vertical move would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 86,916.6; stop below the 4h atr band / recent breakout shelf at 85,340 (~1.81% risk, ~1x rv-informed range); stretch TP at 88,760 (~2.12% reward, R:R ~1.17, inside clamps) into open-air above prior highs, reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h ~1.97% but momentum net +7.2%. 6. EXPECTATION: trend strong but stretched; p_tp1 48, p_sl 33, p_expire 19.
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