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ETHUSD long — 13 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,524.7 and stopped out at 2,491 after 5.1 hours, closing at -1.34%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 05:35 |
| Entry | 2,524.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,491 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,551 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,568.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.30 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,491 |
| Realized P&L | -1.34% |
| Time open | 5.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Mixed/transitional — mtf_alignment 0/4 (mixed), 1h+4h EMA bear_aligned but 5m/15m mixed, 1h ADX 28.7 slope -5.2 (trend fading hard), choppiness 38.2 (borderline), ER-10 0.02/ER-30 0.03 (path nets nowhere = chop), Hurst 0.45, HMM calm; price z -0.60, net_move_24h -1.52% but net_move_4h +2.50% (sharp short-term bounce). 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence is two-sided but tilts long short-term — higher-TF is bear but ADX is collapsing while a strong +2.5% 4h bounce fires with taker_1h 1.29 buy-heavy, OI accelerating_up (oi_15m_z +0.22, oi_change_recent_half +0.54%), top-trader pos ratio 1.54 long-heavy; the broken-trend-plus-reclaim-momentum favors a tactical long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: counter-to-fading-bear long — the 4h momentum flip (+2.50%) with buy-heavy takers, accelerating_up OI, and top-trader long positioning (1.89 account / 1.54 pos) is a reclaim off the 5d low (+4.5% above it) as the 1h trend exhausts (ADX slope -5.2). 4. PRE-MORTEM: failure if 4h bear EMA stack reasserts and price loses ~2495, confirming the bounce was just a dead-cat into continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2524.72; stop 2491.00 below the recent swing / reclaim base (~1.33% risk, ~0.75x the 1.65% 24h traversal, reasonable in 65% RV tape); TP1 stretch 2568.50 at the 5d-high resistance zone (~1.73% / 1.3x risk, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: thin edge, chop-prone tape with high expire risk.
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