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ETHUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,495 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,503 with a price move of -0.32%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 10:50 |
| Entry | 2,495 |
| Stop-loss | 2,548 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,460.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,437 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,503 |
| Realized P&L | -0.32% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Bear-tilt but fading — mtf 2/4 mixed, 1h+4h EMA bear_aligned, 1h ADX 22.3 slope -2.6 (trend fading), choppiness 39.5 (borderline), ER-10 0.50 vs ER-30 0.19 (short-term cleaner, long-term chop), Hurst 0.43 (mean-reverting), HMM calm; price z -0.89, net_move_24h -2.33%. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean on the higher-TF bear stack, but it is softening — momentum negative 4h/24h yet net_move_12h positive, OI accelerating_up and oi_change_recent_half +3.8%, taker_1h 1.06 and recent buckets mixed. Still, trend-aligned side is short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 1h/4h EMAs bear-aligned, 4h RSI 44 with room, funding elevated (agg_z 1.36, delta funding hot) means longs crowded and vulnerable, top-trader pos ratio 1.59 heavily long = fuel for a flush if the bear trend resumes. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI accelerating_up with 12h momentum positive suggests a reclaim bounce building; a push back above ~2545 (5d-high proximity) invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2495.03; stop above the recent swing/invalidation at 2548 (~2.1% = within rv/atr span); stretch target down to 2437 (~2.3% = ~1.1x stop distance, inside clamps) toward the 5d-low region. 6. EXPECTATION: fading trend + elevated OI build warrant a cautious distribution with meaningful expire.
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