ETHUSD short — 1 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,841.5 and stopped out at 1,878 after 7.6 hours, closing at -1.98%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-01 18:30 |
| Entry | 1,841.5 |
| Stop-loss | 1,878 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,813.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,795 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,878 |
| Realized P&L | -1.98% |
| Time open | 7.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA stacks all bear_aligned, 4h mixed, 1h ADX ~24.8 with +2.65 slope (trend strengthening), choppiness 31 (trending), Hurst ~0.52 neutral, Fear&Greed 27 — a bear-aligned down-leg with strengthening momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: short is favored — net moves -1.8%/4h, -1.5%/12h, -1.6%/24h all negative, price sitting on 5d/20d/90d lows (dist_from_low +0.00%), and z_score -1.85 confirms stretched-down but with downside momentum intact. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + momentum + fresh lows — bear EMA stack across 5m/15m/1h, OI z-scores near -3.36 (positions bleeding out into the move), agg_oi -3.38%, and price making new lows with adx slope positive; this is a trend-aligned short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold (5m 15, 15m 13, 1h 24) and top-trader position ratio 1.35 leaning long — a sharp oversold-reclaim bounce back above 1,865 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent oversold-bounce zone and prior structure at 1,878 (beyond invalidation); TP at 1,795 targeting the next round of downside continuation — risk 36.5, reward 46.5, R:R ~1.27. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but deep oversold caps follow-through and raises bounce risk; p_tp1 44, p_sl 33, p_expire 23.
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