SOLUSD short — 1 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 71.86 and stopped out at 73.55 after 11.2 hours, closing at -2.35%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-01 17:45 |
| Entry | 71.86 |
| Stop-loss | 73.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 70.339 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 69.325 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 73.55 |
| Realized P&L | -2.35% |
| Time open | 11.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF (4/4 bear-aligned EMA stacks 5m→4h), ADX_1h 27 with rising slope +4.16, Hurst 0.50, choppiness 33.7 (trending), fear_greed 27 — a genuine, strengthening bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: trend and fresh momentum both point down (net_move_4h -1.55%, price at 5d/20d/90d lows), so the short side has the edge — but RSI is deeply oversold across all TFs (1h 22.8, 15m 16, 5m 24) and rolling z-score -2.25, flagging stretched-to-the-downside. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: I lean short with the trend — ADX rising, mtf full_bearish, taker 0.70 sub-1 (sellers dominant), price making fresh lows — the dominant evidence cluster is trend continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oversold RSI everywhere + z-score -2.25 + OI accelerating_up with top-traders heavily net long (pos ratio 1.63, acct ratio 3.16) means a violent oversold bounce/short-squeeze reclaim above the broken level would invalidate; SOLUSD track record is dismal (WR 21.4%) and same-regime shorts have mostly lost/expired — so I keep confidence modest. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 71.86, stop above the recent consolidation/reclaim zone at 73.55 (~2.35% risk, beyond a bounce that breaks the down-leg), TP1 stretch at 68.20 (~5.1% down, ~2.2x risk) toward next structural support given 24h avg traversal 1.6% but active trend and elevated 7d RV. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but deeply oversold and poor asset base rate — p_tp1 34, p_sl 33, p_expire 33.
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