ETHUSD short — 3 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,850.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,855.5 with a price move of -0.29%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-03 06:45 |
| Entry | 1,850.2 |
| Stop-loss | 1,878 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,826.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,810 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.44 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,855.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.29% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/1h EMA stacks bear_aligned, 15m/4h mixed, 1h ADX 19.8 with negative slope (fading), Hurst 0.48 (random-walk), choppiness 43, F&G 28 (Fear) — a weak, fading down-lean bordering on chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is down (net -0.73% 4h, -1.35% 12h, -1.44% 24h) and lower-TF EMAs are bear, so a modest short lean exists, but positioning is contrarian (top-trader pos ratio 1.49 long, account ratio 2.06). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stacks on 5m/1h, negative net moves across all windows, price sits -4.1% below 5d high and z-score -1.41 (weak below mean), funding_z +2.34 crowded-long that can unwind lower; ETHUSD short WR 45% vs long 36% historically. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is only +0.75% off the 5d/20d/90d low — a reclaim/bounce off that support with OI accelerating_up (oi_momentum accelerating_up, +0.68% recent-half) would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above intraday structure at 1878 (beyond recent swing, ~1.5% risk); TP1 stretch at 1810, near the 90d low zone, ~2.2% below entry, R:R ~1.5. 6. EXPECTATION: fading ADX and proximity to a hard low temper conviction — modest short edge with meaningful expire risk in chop.
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