DOGEUSD short — 3 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.069728 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.07032 with a price move of -0.85%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-03 05:30 |
| Entry | 0.069728 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07095 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.068628 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.067895 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.07032 |
| Realized P&L | -0.85% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h and 5m EMA stacks bear_aligned, 15m/1h mixed (alignment 2/4), 1h ADX 18.6 with negative slope (-4.3) and ADX-20 14.4 = fading trend edging into chop; Hurst 0.41 mildly mean-reverting, HMM calm, choppiness 42 mid-range — a soft bear drift, not a strong trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h (-0.57/-1.32/-1.25%), price -0.90 z below 20d mean, RSI 34-38 across lower TFs — modest short lean, but stretched to the downside near 5d low (+1.68% above 5d low) so downside is partly spent. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short favored by bear EMA on 4h/5m, negative net momentum, and calibration (DOGE short WR ~45% vs long 36%); however top-traders are heavily long (pos ratio 2.99) and taker ratio 1.26 (buyers this hour) argue against chasing here. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI oversold + only +1.68% off 5d low + buyer taker tilt could spark a mean-reversion bounce that reclaims 0.0705 and invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.069728; stop above the 5d-high-anchored reclaim zone at 0.07095 (~1.75% risk, beyond recent swing); TP1 stretch at 0.06730 near the next support extension (~2.6% reward, R:R ~1.5). 6. EXPECTATION: fading trend + oversold near-term means meaningful drift-out risk; p_tp1 40, p_sl 33, p_expire 27.
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