ETHUSD short — 11 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,883.3 and stopped out at 1,908.4 after 13.6 hours, closing at -1.33%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-11 19:56 |
| Entry | 1,883.3 |
| Stop-loss | 1,908.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,866.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,855.9 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,908.4 |
| Realized P&L | -1.33% |
| Time open | 13.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (2/4 — 15m/1h bear-aligned, 5m/4h mixed), ADX_1h 27.4 but slope -0.63 (fading), Hurst 0.37 (mean-reverting), choppiness 46, ER-10 0.025 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 29 Fear — a fading, low-vol chop with a fresh 4h upward pop (+1.14%). 2. LEAN CHECK: two competing reads — fresh +1.14% 4h bounce with taker 0.80 sell-skewed against it, OI accelerating_down (5m z -0.68, agg OI -0.76%), top-traders long-tilted (pos ratio 1.37) into a bear-aligned 1h/15m EMA stack; net signal is a bounce inside a downtrend that is unwinding OI — I lean short on the fade, consistent with this asset's winning short pattern (3 of last 4 wins here were shorts). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: bear-aligned 15m/1h EMA plus sell-skewed taker 0.80 and accelerating_down OI say the +1.14% 4h pop is a distributive bounce being sold; 5m RSI 79 overbought marks near-term exhaustion. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim and hold above the 5d high (~1930, only -2.5% away) with OI turning up would flip this to trend-continuation long and invalidate the fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1883.28; stop 1908.4 above the overbought-5m swing / near the 5d-high shelf (~1.33% wide, comfortably inside the 31.8 rv_24h daily range); take_profit_1 1855.9 (~1.45% below, R:R ~1.09) targeting the recent 12h/24h mean-reversion zone, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: fade in chop is coin-flippish with modest edge; p_tp1 42, p_sl 36, p_expire 22.
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