ETHUSD short — 13 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,878.2 and hit its target at 1,864.3 after 5 hours, closing at +0.74%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-13 11:39 |
| Entry | 1,878.2 |
| Stop-loss | 1,901 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,864.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,855 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.02 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 1,864.3 |
| Realized P&L | +0.74% |
| Time open | 5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (5m/15m/4h EMA mixed, only 1h bear-aligned), ADX_1h 14.8 slope -0.26 (weak/fading, sub-15 chop), Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting), choppiness 52.8, ER-10 0.0125 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 29 Fear — a low-conviction mean-reverting chop with a fresh downward impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — freshest momentum is net -0.88% 4h/-1.93% 24h, taker ratio 0.868 sell-skewed, price pinned near 5d/20d lows (-2.55%/-2.76% from highs, only +0.86% off 5d low), z_score -1.0; the counter is elevated funding (z 1.71, agg z 1.82) + accelerating_up OI + top-trader pos 1.37 long, but that crowded-long funding into a falling price is bearish squeeze fuel not a bottom. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/momentum — sell-skewed takers plus crowded longs (funding z +1.7, top traders 1.37 long) into weak price and Fear sentiment is a classic long-squeeze setup that resolves down; the prior short calls on this asset in identical chop won 3 of the last shown. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim back above ~1900 with taker ratio flipping >1 and OI holding would invalidate — oversold RSI (37-41) could snap-back given mean-reverting Hurst. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1878.22; stop above near-term structure/round 1900 at 1902.5 (~1.29% = ~0.5x rv_24h band, sane); stretch target down toward the 5d-low zone at 1855.0 (~1.24%, R:R ~0.96 — nudge stop). Adjust: stop 1901.0 (1.21%), TP 1855.0 (1.24%) → R:R ~1.02, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with a thin short edge — modest p_tp1, meaningful expire given low ER and range-bound tape.
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