ETHUSD short — 14 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,884.9 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,884.2 with a price move of +0.04%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-14 16:58 |
| Entry | 1,884.9 |
| Stop-loss | 1,912.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,868.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,857 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,884.2 |
| Realized P&L | +0.04% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (2/4, 15m/1h bear-aligned, 5m/4h mixed), ADX_1h 20.7 slope -0.72 (borderline trend, fading), ADX_20 15.4, Hurst 0.30 (strongly mean-reverting), choppiness 58.4, ER-30 0.02 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 29 Fear — a low-conviction, mean-reverting chop, weak bearish structural tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest short lean — 1h/15m EMA bear-aligned, funding z -0.91 / agg -1.12 (crowd not paying to be long), OI accelerating_up while price barely holds (+0.59% 24h) suggests fresh longs to trap; against it are fresh +0.66% 4h pop, taker 1.35 buy-skewed, top-trader pos ratio 1.37 and rising — genuinely mixed, but this asset's 30d record and same-regime longs both bleed, so I favor the short with low confidence. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: bear-aligned 1h/15m EMA stack + strongly mean-reverting Hurst 0.30 with a fresh 4h upward pop into the 5d high (-2.2%) is a classic fade setup; the recent-signals attribution shows ETH shorts winning repeatedly on exactly this fade-the-pop-in-fear structure. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker 1.35 + rising top-trader longs + OI accelerating_up means if buyers follow through and reclaim the 5d high (~1927), the short is wrong and a squeeze runs. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1884.88; stop 1912.4 (above the recent 4h pop and just under the 5d-high resistance shelf, ~1.46% = ~0.57x rv_24h, structural invalidation); target 1857.0 (down toward the 20d/5d low band, ~1.48% below entry, R:R ~1.01, inside clamps, reachable given avg 24h traversal 0.69% but consistent with 25.5 rv). 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reverting fade in chop — modest edge, high expire risk.
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