ETHUSD short — 18 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,892.2 and stopped out at 1,912.5 after 11.5 hours, closing at -1.07%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-18 02:58 |
| Entry | 1,892.2 |
| Stop-loss | 1,912.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,877.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,868.2 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,912.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.07% |
| Time open | 11.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (0/4 alignment — 5m bear-aligned, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull EMA), ADX_1h 24.8 slope -1.8 (marginal trend, fading), Hurst 0.37 (mean-reverting), choppiness 54.6, ER-30 0.08 (nets nowhere), HMM calm, F&G 41 Fear — a low-efficiency, mean-reverting chop with fresh downward momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — freshest momentum net -0.60% 4h/-0.88% 12h, taker 1h 0.85 sell-skewed, OI collapsing hard (oi_5m_z -4.64, oi_15m_z -4.26, momentum accelerating_down, agg_oi -2.04%) as price falls = longs bailing/deleveraging into the drop. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_down OI with sub-1 taker ratio and negative 4h/12h/24h net moves; 5m EMA bear-aligned and 5m RSI 24 confirms the near-term impulse is down, aligned with the freshest tape even though the 1h/4h EMAs still lean bull. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m/15m RSI deeply oversold (24/27) plus top-trader pos ratio 1.36 long-tilted — a fast mean-reversion bounce off the 5d-low (+1.39% away) would invalidate; a reclaim of 1900 kills the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent consolidation shelf at 1912.5 (0.02% above the 15m structure, ~1.07% distance ≈ within RV band); target the 5d-low zone near 1868 as the stretch (~1.28% below entry, RR ≈ 1.13, inside clamps, reachable in 24h given avg 24h traversal 0.74% but this is a trending-down leg). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold RSI raises bounce risk but flow is one-directional; p_tp1 42, p_sl 37, p_expire 21.
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