ETHUSD short — 25 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,456.8 and hit its target at 2,428.1 after 7.7 hours, closing at +1.17%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 13:28 |
| Entry | 2,456.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,497.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,428.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,409 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,428.1 |
| Realized P&L | +1.17% |
| Time open | 7.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4, 1h/4h EMA stacks bull_aligned but 5m/15m bearish; ADX_1h 18.4 slope -1.8 (fading), 4h ADX high 50 but that's a lagging trend read; ER-30 0.009 / choppiness 56.8, Hurst 0.57, HMM calm — a fading, transitional/choppy tape with near-term downside momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term flow is bearish (net_move_4h/12h/24h all negative, OI accelerating_down oi_15m_z -1.27, agg_oi -4.4%, taker 0.79 sell-heavy, funding_momentum -1.0 unwinding) but HTF EMA stacks still bull — the near-term evidence cluster favors a modest short into the fade. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI accelerating_down with negative net moves across all windows and a 0.79 taker sell ratio, price -2.6% below 5d/20d high; a counter-trend short but momentum + de-leveraging support the near-term slide. 4. PRE-MORTEM: this is counter to the 1h/4h bull EMA stack and top-trader pos ratio is 1.80 long-heavy — a reclaim back above ~2490 with taker flipping >1 invalidates the short and resumes the uptrend. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2456.82; stop above the near-term structure at 2497.5 (~1.66% / within rv_24h range); target down at 2409.0 (~1.95%, R:R ~1.17, inside clamps) toward the 5d-low retest zone, reachable given avg 24h traversal ~4%. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors the move but HTF trend fights it, keeping p_expire meaningful.
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