ETHUSD short — 28 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,438.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,447.7 with a price move of -0.39%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 16:38 |
| Entry | 2,438.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,478.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,409.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,390 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,447.7 |
| Realized P&L | -0.39% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 (5m/15m bear EMA, 1h/4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 12.7 slope +3.3 / ADX-20 9.8 (no near-term trend), 4h ADX 36 lags, ER-30 0.24 / choppiness 39.5, Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — chop with fresh, clean downside momentum inside a nominally-bull 4h structure. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is decisively down — net_move -2.3% (4h), -3.2% (24h), price -3.7% under 5d/20d/90d highs, taker 0.74 (sell-heavy), OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -5.0, oi_15m_z -6.7, agg_oi -4.6%, momentum accelerating_down) — short lean. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — aggressive OI unwind with accelerating_down momentum and persistent sub-1 taker ratio confirms sellers driving the tape lower; this is the same short setup that won +1.80% on this asset in identical chop_high_vol. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 1.83 (heavily long) and Hurst 0.34 mean-reverting risk a bounce; a reclaim of ~2470 with taker flipping >1 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2438.22, stop above the invalidation reclaim at 2478.5 (~1.65%, within 24h RV), take_profit_1 at 2390 (~1.98%, structural 5d-low retest zone, R:R ~1.2). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but chop + long top-traders cap conviction.
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