AAVEUSD short — 28 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 123.25 and hit its target at 121.09 after 5.3 hours, closing at +1.75%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 16:38 |
| Entry | 123.25 |
| Stop-loss | 126.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 121.09 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 119.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 121.09 |
| Realized P&L | +1.75% |
| Time open | 5.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull but 1h mixed and 15m/5m bear_aligned → alignment 2/4 mixed, 1h ADX 11.6 with negative slope (fading), choppiness 44.5 (mid), ER-30 0.13 (path nets little), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-conviction structure rolling over into a fresh down-leg (net_move_4h -1.66%, 24h -4.63%). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — near-term momentum is down, OI is bleeding hard (agg_oi -8.3%, Binance OI z -1.9, oi_change_recent_half -4.7%, decelerating) which is longs de-risking into weakness, and lower-TF EMAs are bear-aligned. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI collapsing on a down move with top-trader longs still crowded (pos ratio 2.20) sets up further long-liquidation drift; trend-aligned on the 5m/15m bear stacks that lead the near-term. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is only +0.52% off the 5d low — a reclaim/bounce off that support with the 4h bull stack reasserting would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 123.25, stop above recent intraday structure at 126.35 (2.5% / ~0.5x rv_24h, beyond the reclaim level), take_profit_1 at 119.65 (2.9% down, ~1.16x stop distance, R:R ~1.16, a structural push through the 5d low reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 6.8%). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum + OI favor the short but proximity to 5d-low support and mid choppiness cap conviction.
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