ETHUSD short — 30 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,411.4 and stopped out at 2,449.5 after 9.5 hours, closing at -1.58%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-30 23:38 |
| Entry | 2,411.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,449.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,382.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,363.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,449.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.58% |
| Time open | 9.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 36 but slope -4.0 (fading), ADX-20 23.6, ER-10 0.35/ER-30 0.16, choppiness 37.8 (nominally trending), Hurst 0.32 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a HTF-bull structure being sold hard on fresh downside momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is clearly down — net_move -3.7% (4h), -1.9% (24h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.66, agg OI -3.2%), taker 0.91 sub-1; short lean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI collapsing into a -3.7% 4h flush with sub-1 taker ratio and z-score -1.66 confirms sellers pressing; RSI oversold (5m 13.6, 15m 19.8) plus Hurst 0.32 mean-reversion argues the flush is stretched, so I keep it a low-conf short into momentum rather than fading. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold RSI + top-trader pos ratio 1.76 (longs held) + eth ETF +102M inflow could spark a sharp reclaim bounce back above 2,430. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 2,411; stop above the 4h/1h intraday pivot at 2,449.5 (~1.58% risk, within the 3.96% avg daily range); target the stretch down toward the prior support shelf at 2,363.5 (~1.98% reward, R:R ~1.25, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold stretch + HTF bull caps it.
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