AAVEUSD short — 30 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 121.4958 and stopped out at 124.85 after 15.1 hours, closing at -2.76%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-30 23:38 |
| Entry | 121.4958 |
| Stop-loss | 124.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 119.2783 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 117.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 124.85 |
| Realized P&L | -2.76% |
| Time open | 15.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull but 1h/15m mixed and 5m bear_aligned → alignment 0/4, mtf tag mixed/transitional; 1h ADX 29.3 with negative slope (-3.9, fading), choppiness 39.0 (near trending), ER-10 0.46 but ER-30 0.08 (nets nowhere over longer window), Hurst 0.47, HMM calm 0.999 — a bull-stacked HTF rolling over into a fresh sharp down-leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — net_move_4h -4.82%, 24h -4.34%, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -4.17, oi_15m_z -4.21) with heavy longs bleeding, price -6% off 5d high. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI collapsing (accelerating_down, agg_oi -5.96%) alongside a sharp price drop is genuine long liquidation/deleveraging, and top-trader pos ratio 2.01 crowded-long is fuel for continuation; taker 1h 0.71 sell-skewed confirms sellers in control. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold (5m 16.9, 15m 19.7, 1h 32.5) and price sits +0.5% above the 5d low — an oversold bounce/reclaim of the 5d low would invalidate the continuation short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 121.50, stop above the recent 4h swing / round reclaim at 124.85 (~2.75%, within realized range), target down at 117.80 (~3.05% / ~1.1x stop distance) toward the 5d-low breakdown extension, inside clamps, RR ~1.1. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce risk tempers the momentum edge, so meaningful two-way and expire probability.
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