ETHUSD short — 1 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,437.6 and hit its target at 2,415.6 after 4.7 hours, closing at +0.90%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 13:18 |
| Entry | 2,437.6 |
| Stop-loss | 2,468.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,415.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,401 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,415.6 |
| Realized P&L | +0.90% |
| Time open | 4.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/1h bear EMA, 4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 15/ADX-20 11.9 (weak/chop), ER-30 0.00, choppiness 49.6, Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a choppy tape with near-term bearish tilt inside a fading 4h bull structure. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — near-term momentum is down (net -0.49% 4h, -0.92% 12h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.5, agg OI -2.35%), taker ratio 0.77 (sellers), price sitting near 5d low with rolling z -1.04. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow/OI cluster is the strongest — falling OI on a decline plus persistent sell-side taker flow and accelerating_down OI momentum, all three lower TFs bear-aligned, confirms distribution rather than a squeeze. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio 1.63 (heavily long) and funding still mildly positive means a reclaim of the 4h EMA / bounce off the 5d low (only -3.5% from high, +1.3% off low) would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2437.59, stop above recent intraday structure at 2468.5 (~1.27%, ~0.9x rv range), target down toward 2400 support at 2401.0 (~1.5% / ~1.15x stop distance, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: short with a modest edge in a choppy tape near the low — path is inefficient so meaningful expire probability.
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