ETHUSD short — 2 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,373.1 and stopped out at 2,412.5 after 4.2 hours, closing at -1.66%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-02 09:33 |
| Entry | 2,373.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,412.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,344.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,325 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,412.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.66% |
| Time open | 4.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/1h bear EMA, 4h still bull), 1h ADX 34.8 slope +0.94 (strengthening trend), ADX-20 26.6, ER-10 0.47/ER-30 0.41, choppiness 54.5, Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a HTF-bull structure being sold with a strengthening downside 1h trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — net moves all down (-1.90% 4h, -1.62% 12h, -3.09% 24h), OI bleeding (agg_oi -4.45%, Binance oi_5m_z -1.57, 15m_z -1.57), taker ratio 0.633 (sellers dominant), z-score -2.97 (price stretched below mean but momentum-down persists). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/momentum — falling OI on a downmove with taker sells at 0.63 signals longs unwinding, and this exact setup (mtf 2/4 bear + falling OI + sub-1 taker) has won 3 straight ETH shorts in attribution. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold across TFs (5m 22.9, 15m 24.4, 1h 28) plus z-score -2.97 and price sitting at 5d/20d/90d low (+0.00% off lows) — a mean-reversion bounce off the low is the real risk. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2373.11; stop above the recent intraday shelf / 1h structure at 2412.5 (~1.66% risk, within rv range); take_profit_1 stretch at 2325.0 (~2.03% reward, R:R ~1.22, inside clamps) targeting a clean extension below the round 2350 level given fresh momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold stretch caps conviction and raises expire odds.
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