SOLUSD short — 2 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 97.95 and stopped out at 100.15 after 12.5 hours, closing at -2.25%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-02 11:18 |
| Entry | 97.95 |
| Stop-loss | 100.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 96.51 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 95.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 100.15 |
| Realized P&L | -2.25% |
| Time open | 12.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/1h bear-aligned, 4h still bull EMA but RSI 31), 1h ADX 43.6 slope +3.9 (strong and strengthening), ER10 0.30 / ER30 0.53, choppiness 49, Hurst 0.59, HMM calm 0.9999 — a cooling HTF uptrend rolling into a strong, strengthening downside push. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — net -1.9% 4h / -4.2% 24h with rising 1h ADX 43.6, taker 0.94 sell-tilted, agg OI shrinking, and the same setup that won 3 recent SOL shorts. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strong trend-aligned downside momentum on lower TFs (5m/15m/1h all bear EMA, ADX 43.6 accelerating) is the dominant cluster, confirmed by negative funding z (-0.87) and OI bleed (-2.1% 24h). 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold 1h/15m RSI (27/29) plus top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.15) risks a mean-reversion bounce that reclaims ~99.5 and invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 97.95, stop 100.15 (above the reclaim zone / recent supply, ~2.25% = ~0.5x rv_24h), target 95.55 (structural push toward 5d-low continuation, ~2.45% = ~1.09x stop distance, inside clamps, reachable given 3.2% avg 24h traversal). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold RSI + long top-traders cap it — p_tp1 46, p_sl 37, p_expire 17.
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