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ETHUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,467.2 and hit its target at 2,437.7 after 5.6 hours, closing at +1.20%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-10 17:33 |
| Entry | 2,467.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,502.3 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,437.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,418 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.40 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,437.7 |
| Realized P&L | +1.20% |
| Time open | 5.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 0/4 (5m mixed, 15m bear, 1h mixed, 4h bull), 1h ADX 29.1 slope +1.6 (moderate/rising), ADX-20 20.8, ER-10 0.045/ER-30 0.13 (noisy path netting nowhere), choppiness 42.9, Hurst 0.44 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-efficiency, mildly trending-down chop tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest short lean survives — all net moves negative (4h +1.34% bounce but 12h -0.59%, 24h -1.05%), 15m bear-aligned, taker ratio <1, 5m RSI 76 overbought into a bounce that just faded. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the 4h +1.34% pop stalled with 5m RSI 76 overbought and taker buy/sell 0.974; price sits -2.09% from 5d high and -2.38% from 20d high — a rejection into resistance inside a down-tilted 24h tape, so I fade the bounce short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme negative funding (z -4.9, agg z -5.5) plus top-trader pos ratio 1.31 long + OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +2.27) means a short squeeze could carry it back through the 5d high — that invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent swing/5d-high zone at 2,502.3 (~1.42% risk, within the 3% avg-24h-range envelope); target the 5d-low reclaim area at 2,418.0 (~1.99% reward, R:R ~1.4, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: chop with mean-reverting Hurst and a modest short lean but squeeze risk from crowded-short funding — p_tp1 42, p_sl 34, p_expire 24.
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