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PAXGUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,350.2 and hit its target at 4,330.3 after 58 minutes, closing at +0.46%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-10 18:03 |
| Entry | 4,350.2 |
| Stop-loss | 4,382 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,330.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,317 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 4,330.3 |
| Realized P&L | +0.46% |
| Time open | 58 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned), 1h ADX 29.0 slope +5.8 (genuine trend strengthening), choppiness 39.7 (trending edge), ER-10 0.44 modest / ER-30 0.19 noisy, Hurst 0.47 neutral, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm gold pullback with a fresh, strengthening down-leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — net_move_pct_4h -0.21%, net_12h -1.66%, net_24h -1.19%, gold spot -1.44% 24h, RSI 32-37 fading across all TFs, rolling_z -1.55 stretched below mean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is full HTF trend alignment (4/4 bear) plus a strengthening ADX slope on the down-leg — the whole stack is bear-aligned and the macro gold input (-1.44% spot) confirms the physical reference is falling, so the token has room to follow. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is only +0.14% off the 5d low and rolling_z -1.55 is stretched, so a mean-reversion bounce off oversold RSI (32) would invalidate; a reclaim of the 5d-low breakdown with taker buying (last bucket 1.12) is the risk. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4,350.25; stop_loss 4,382.00 above the recent intraday swing/5d-low reclaim zone (~0.73% = ~0.9x the 0.83% 24h traversal), take_profit_1 4,317.00 (0.77% below, structural push toward 20d-low area, RR ~1.05, within 1.5x/4% clamps and reachable given avg_move_pct_24h 0.83%). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stretched near 5d-low with low absolute vol, so meaningful expire probability. p_tp1 44, p_sl 33, p_expire 23.
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