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ETHUSD short — 23 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,694.1 and hit its target at 2,664.6 after 4 hours, closing at +1.09%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-23 22:08 |
| Entry | 2,694.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,731.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,664.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,645 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.31 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,664.6 |
| Realized P&L | +1.09% |
| Time open | 4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned but 1h/5m mixed and 15m bear (alignment 0/4, mtf mixed, regime transitional); 1h ADX 34 slope +0.9 (trend present, mild firming), ER-10/30 ~0.21-0.23 (path nets little), choppiness 41 (mid), Hurst 0.63 (persistent), HMM calm — a maturing 4h uptrend rolling into short-TF weakness with recent net-move down (-2.1% 24h, -1.6% 12h). 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but the short-TF momentum, negative net moves, OI unwinding (accelerating_down, oi_5m_z -1.36, agg_oi -2.5%) and price 3.2% below 5d/20d/90d high lean modestly short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI is bleeding as price pulls back (accelerating_down, -4.9% recent half) with net_move negative across 12h/24h — longs unwinding into a stalled top; the 4h uptrend is intact but the immediate flow favors continuation of the down-leg toward the 5d low. Counter: taker ratio 1.25 (buyers) and top-trader pos ratio 1.56 (longs) argue the other way. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim back above ~2725 with taker buying (1.25 already leaning buy) would restore the 4h bull structure and invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2694; stop above the last swing/reclaim zone at 2731 (~1.37% risk, within rv range); stretch target down at 2645 (~1.82% reward), R:R ~1.33, inside clamps, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 2.64%. 6. EXPECTATION: modest short edge against a bull HTF, so meaningful expire probability.
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