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ETHUSD short — 23 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,651.4 and stopped out at 2,696 after 7.7 hours, closing at -1.68%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-23 14:23 |
| Entry | 2,651.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,696 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,622.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,603.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.07 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,696 |
| Realized P&L | -1.68% |
| Time open | 7.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMA bull-aligned but 5m/15m bear-aligned and deeply oversold (RSI 17-18), alignment 0/4 mtf mixed; 1h ADX 24 slope +2.7, ER-10 0.93 (clean recent path) but ER-30 0.39, choppiness 32.5 (trending edge), Hurst 0.62, HMM calm — a 4h uptrend that has rolled into a sharp, clean short-TF flush (-3.4% 24h, -3.9% 12h). 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence leans short — the active momentum is strongly down (net moves negative on all horizons, OI accelerating_down, oi_5m_z -4.5) while HTF bull is stale; the clean downside path (ER-10 0.93) is the live edge. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum + OI cluster — accelerating_down OI (oi_5m_z -4.53, oi_15m_z -3.40, agg_oi -3.25%) confirms a real liquidation/de-risking impulse, not chop, and ER-10 0.93 says the down move is directionally efficient right now. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold 5m/15m RSI (17-18) at the 5d low (+3.2% above) plus top-trader pos ratio 1.54 rising can spark a sharp mean-reversion bounce reclaiming the 1h EMAs. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2651.40; stop 2696.0 above the recent 4h swing/1h EMA reclaim zone (~1.68%, within rv range); take_profit_1 2603.5 (~1.80%, ~1.07x stop distance) at prior support toward the 5d low, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 2.66%. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold risks a snap-back, so p_tp1 46 / p_sl 38 / p_expire 16.
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