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BTCUSD long — 23 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 84,124.8 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 84,307 with a price move of +0.22%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-23 14:23 |
| Entry | 84,124.8 |
| Stop-loss | 82,780 |
| Take-profit 1 | 85,258.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 86,015 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.41 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 84,307 |
| Realized P&L | +0.22% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA bull-aligned but 5m bear-aligned and 15m mixed (alignment 0/4), 1h ADX 24.5 slope -0.3 (fading), Hurst 0.62 persistent, HMM calm — a bull HTF structure now under an acute short-term selloff (-2.3% 24h, -2.0% in the last 4h). 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is clearly DOWN (net_move 4h/12h/24h all negative, 5m EMA bear, agg OI -7.9%), but every timeframe RSI is deeply oversold (5m 20, 15m 22, 1h 28) and funding z is -2.3/-2.4 (shorts crowded/paying), which sets up a mean-reversion bounce into the persistent 4h bull structure — I lean LONG on the oversold reclaim. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: capitulation signature — funding_z -2.30 + agg_funding_z -2.43 (extreme unwind, shorts crowding), OI purged (-7.9% agg, oi_5m_z -3.28), 1h/5m/15m RSI all oversold, taker ratio last bucket 1.10 (buyers stepping in) — against a still-bull 4h EMA stack and top-trader pos ratio 1.91 (large longs held); an oversold snap-back within the higher-TF trend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a decisive break below the 5d low (~-4.8% region / ~80,050) with continued OI expansion downward invalidates the bounce and confirms trend break. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 84,125; stop below recent swing/structure at 82,780 (~1.6% risk, ~within 24h rv range); stretch target 86,240 (~2.5% up, R:R ~1.57 clamped to ~1.5x → place at 86,140 for ~1.4x, a reclaim toward the 5d-high shelf). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce is real but counter to acute momentum, so meaningful stop odds.
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