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ETHUSD short — 28 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,647.8 and stopped out at 2,691.5 after 6.3 hours, closing at -1.65%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-28 05:53 |
| Entry | 2,647.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,691.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,617.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,597 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,691.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.65% |
| Time open | 6.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned but 1h mixed, 15m/5m bear (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed, transitional); 1h ADX 17.4 slope +3.2 (weak/firming), ER-10 0.52 / ER-30 0.25, choppiness 46 (mid), Hurst 0.54, HMM calm 1.0 — a choppy, slightly-heavy tape, no clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — near-term momentum negative (net -0.30% 4h / -1.57% 12h / -2.07% 24h), price -2.06% on the day, z-score -0.77, RV in low percentiles. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — oi_momentum_state accelerating_down, oi_5m_z -1.97, agg_oi_24h -1.96%, funding negative and unwinding; OI bleeding on a down move is longs capitulating/positions closing into weakness, and this exact setup won twice recently on ETH. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader pos ratio 1.61 (crowded long) plus last-hour taker buy 1.33 and 4h bull EMA mean a bounce/reclaim of ~2680 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2647.81; stop above the recent intraday shelf / bull tilt at 2691.5 (dist ~1.65%, within 24h RV of 2.77%); stretch target down at the 5d-low area 2597 (dist ~1.92%, R:R ~1.16, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: choppy tape caps conviction — modest edge to the downside but two-sided with crowded-long risk.
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