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SOLUSD short — 28 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 119.05 and hit its target at 117.55 after 9 hours, closing at +1.26%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-28 05:53 |
| Entry | 119.05 |
| Stop-loss | 121.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 117.55 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 116.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 117.55 |
| Realized P&L | +1.26% |
| Time open | 9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 0/4 (5m/15m bear_aligned, 1h/4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 17.6 slope +3.3 (weak trend building), ER10 0.70 but ER30 0.14 (recent clean but longer-horizon nets nowhere), choppiness 44 (neutral), Hurst 0.53, HMM calm 0.999 — HTF bull structure but near-term is a bearish pullback; regime is transitional/chop-lean-down. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term SHORT lean — net -1.39% 4h, -2.48% 12h with OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.92, oi_15m_z -1.83, recent-half -4.29%) and lower TFs bear_aligned, which is longs de-risking into the pullback. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the flow/OI cluster (accelerating_down OI unwind + fresh downside momentum + bearish 5m/15m EMA stacks + broad crypto risk-off, total_mcap -2.6%, BTC.d rising to 58.7%) points down and lower-TF alignment is with it; the 1h/4h bull EMAs and top-trader long-heavy (pos ratio 2.30) are the counterweight. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim above ~120.8 (1h EMA cluster / recent balance) with 5m/15m flipping bull would invalidate the short and resume the HTF uptrend. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 119.05, stop above the pullback structure and 1h EMA reclaim at 121.35 (~1.9% risk, near atr_pct 1h 1.02 / rv aligned); TP1 stretch down at 116.55 (~2.1% reward, R:R ~1.1x, prior 5d-low support zone) reachable given avg 24h traversal 2.58%. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but top-trader longs and HTF bull structure cap conviction; p_tp1 41 / p_sl 37 / p_expire 22.
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